I was right: No iPad! My prediction record, and why I got that one right.
At 11:47 on July 27th, 2008 I opined on twitter:
Prediction: Apple will *not* come out with another tablet computer (other than the ipod/iphone line) within at least the next 18 months.
July 27th, 2008 — http://twitter.com/neomac_com/status/869905628
What’s very important about this “Wrong” seeming prediction is that at the time I wrote it, the pundits and rumor sites were going on and on about how a new “tablet computer” was coming from Apple in the “september / october” timeframe.
How did I know this was false? I didn’t have any inside information, I’ve just been watching Apple for many years. I am pretty sure that Apple was working on the iPad at least prior to the date of my prediction, but this means nothing. Apple was “working on the iPad” since before they released the Newton.
Apple works on a lot of things. Apple explores different form factors. Not every project is product. In fact, what makes Apple a great company is that so few of their projects actually are products. They only release the very important ones, and they are able to polish the hell out of them.
It was obvious, in the Summer of 2008 at that there was no iPad right around the corner because the iPhone was still a very new product. The appstore had just launched and while successful was not the phenomenon it is now. The 3G iPhone had just launched and while also successful, the iPhone was not yet the runaway hit.
The reason rumor sites so often get things wrong is that they don’t have a long term perspective. Apple does, and I do.
But then they have to have 5 new rumors a week, and I am able to put things down in stone, 18 months before starting my blog to set out my bona fides.
Think I just got lucky? Here’s some more:
Most recent, I correctly predicted the iPad commercial during the Oscars:
Prediction: Apple will run an iPad commercial during the Oscar broadcast. Just like the “Hello” commercial for iphone in 2007.
March 3, 2010 — http://twitter.com/neomac_com/status/9964067379
But that was a gimme. How about something more challenging?
Apple’s purchase of PA Semi is going to have huge implications. The ipod/iphone is a platform, that Apple is betting a quarter billion on.
April 25th, 2008 — http://twitter.com/neomac_com/status/796578008
Context and perspective are important. At the time, Steve had not yet confirmed my prediction in an interview, and people were saying that Apple acquired them “for the engineers” (as if that made any sense.)
I still think that this acquisition has not fully come to fruition. But I believe Apple made it with the expectation of it affecting Apple’s products in 2013 and beyond.
Another more recent one, that probably also seems obvious now (only 4 weeks after launch!)
The iPad is going to fail like the iPhone failed. And like the iPod failed. Amazing to see whines from those who will never get it.
Jan 27th, 2010 — http://twitter.com/neomac_com/status/8298134291
The internet is notorious for its short memory. People who think things were obvious after the fact are oblivious to the statements they made beforehand.
How many people said the iPod was going to be a failure? I remember the day of release, the comments that were posted to the slashdot story. It was obvious to me that none of them got it. And that’s pretty understandable at the time— pre-existing open source bigotry combined with a fundamentally new category product.
But here it is, nearly 10 years and 150+ million ipods later, and when the iPad was announced you heard the same complaints from the same people. ”No USB” and “No Flash” and— irony of ironies— “it’s just a big iPod”.
Apple doesn’t walk on water. But I think if you’re going to criticize them, you should at least have enough perspective to understand what it is they are doing.
I promise to give you that perspective. This guarantees virtual anonymity— but if you question my chops, just remember, I predicted that there would be no iPad for 18 months when everyone was claiming it was imminent.
I may have only just barely made the 18 month deadline, but I was a 18 months closer than they were!
